April 9, 2008

This is my first attempt to project the 2008/09 crop year statistics. I have used the March 31 planting intentions report to set acres and recent data to set the yield ranges. There is obviously a lot of uncertainty in this projection. More planting and crop condition information later in the year will help to define narrower production ranges. And use numbers are even more uncertain, especially for exports and ethanol use. To me, the important facet of this table is the drop in stocks for the “expected” scenario. That expectation has likely added about 40 cents/bu to the corn price over the past 3 weeks and may bring back in a few more corn acres before planting ends. For now, it is a very uncertain time to price commodities. Some traditional pricing venues may not even be available to producers at this time. There is likely a lot of weather premium in the market currently, so if pricing is available through cash forward contracting or hedge to arrive arrangements, consider pricing up to a third of this year’s expected crop.

For more information contact Delton C. Gerloff

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