The Milk Market News is a monthly newsletter published by John
Campbell, Area Farm Management Specialist, to help producers
stay up-to-date on what’s happening in the milk market and
how it can impact their operations.
Milk Market Comments by John
Campbell
U. T. EXTENSION -April 18, 2008
Milk production in the 23 major states during March totaled 15.1 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from March 2007. Production per cow was 1,795 pounds in March, up 12 pounds from March a year ago. There were 8.44 million cows, 141,000 more than March 2007, and 9,000 more than February. Milk production for the first quarter was up 3.2% over the first quarter a year ago. There was an average of 112,000 cows for the period. For milk production in the top 5 producing states, California was up 2.4% from March a year ago; Wisconsin up 1.7%; New York up 2.7%; Idaho up 8.2%; and Pennsylvania down 2.0%. Colorado was up 11.4%; Texas up 10.1%; New Mexico up 8.3%; and Kansas up 5.8%. Missouri was down 9.5%; Florida down 2.9%; Indiana down 2.4%; Illinois down 1.8%; and Kentucky down 1.7%. At Smith Grove, Kentucky on April 15 supreme springers sold $1,800 to $2,100, down about $100 from a month ago. Supreme springers sold $2,100 to $2,425 at Thomasville, Georgia on April 14, up $150 from a month ago prices.
The Southeast Uniform milk price for March was $18.79, down $2.11 from February, and $2.91 higher than March 2007. February’s Class III price was $18.00, up 97 cents from February and up $2.91 from March a year ago. The Class IV price was down 50 cents from February to $14.17, and 44 cents above March 2007. Class I utilization was 64.8%, up 0.6% from February. The butterfat price was $1.3561, up 2 cents from last month. The March Class I price was $19.80. The April Class I price is $21.71, up $1.91 from March and $3.61 higher than April 2007. Markets seem to be anticipating a slow down in production as futures prices for the second half of 2008 have risen significantly over the last month. Class III futures prices on April 18: April $16.74, even with a month ago; May $17.78, up 78 cents; June $18.55, up $1.50; July $19.33, up $2.21; August $19.62, up $2.32; September $19.77, up $2.34; October $19.47, up $2.21; November $19.51, up $2.23; December $19.45, up $2.19; January 2009 $19.40, up $2.17; and February $19.14, up $1.91. The Class III futures average for July through December was $19.53 today. Whey futures prices have been increasing supporting Class III futures prices. Production is increasing seasonally. Traders are anticipating tighter milk supplies later in the year. California has instituted two-tiered pricing to penalize producers who ship higher volumes than last year. California has lost manufacturing capacity. February total cheese production was up 1.1% over a year ago when adjusted for leap day. Cheddar production was down 2.5%. February’s adjusted NDM/SMP production was 35.7% higher than a year ago. Butter production was up 5.6%, while dry whey production was down 2.5%. Cheese exports reached a record high in February, up 76.1% over a year ago when adjusted for leap day. Cheese exports in January and February were equivalent to 3% of total U. S. cheese production. February SMP/NDM adjusted exports were up 63.4%, most in a month since July 1987. Whey exports were down 29.4%. During 2007, the U. S. exported 585 million pounds of whey (53% of production), 568 million pounds of nonfat dry milk (38% of production), 219 million pounds of cheese (2% of production), and 73 million pounds of butter (5% of production). Dairy cow slaughter was 214,000 head in February, down 22,000 head from January, but still 12,000 head more than a year ago. Year-to-date culling activity is up about 4.7 percent. Fluid milk sales for the December-February period were down 1.1% from a year ago adjusted for leap day. USDA projects retail dairy prices will be 3% to 4% higher in 2008, following a 7.4% increase in 2007. The January-February all dairy Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 13% over a year ago. The all food CPI was up 4% in 2007, the highest increase since 1990. The all food CPI for 2008 is projected up 3.5% to 4.5%. The largest gains are expected in fats/oils up 7.8% and cereal/bakery up 6.5% to 7.5%.
Technically speaking – May futures $17.78 up 78 cents from a month ago. Support at $17.20 and $16.80. Resistance at $17.40 and $17.80. The RSI is 74.49. June futures $18.55 up $1.50 from a month ago. Support at $18.25 and $17.00. Resistance at $17.75 and $19.00. The RSI is 70.80. August futures $19.62 up $2.32 from a month ago. Support at $18.50 and $17.25. Resistance at $18.00 and $19.65. The RSI is 74.72.
Text Only Page
|
