May 10, 2012

In today’s report, USDA updated the old crop stocks and put forth their first official estimate of the new crop year. This report is being perceived as bearish as old crop stocks were raised rather than cut and new crop stocks are projected to be more than double old crop stocks .For new crop stocks, this could be the largest estimate of the year as the fallout from corn prices trending lower, soybean prices stable to trending higher, and higher nitrogen prices could cause a few corn acres to shift to soybeans. A record yield is projected and to be achieved will depend on ideal conditions. Lower corn prices may also stimulate additional demand. Looking at the numbers, old crop corn ending stocks were raised 50 million bushels to 851 million bushels as feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels. It is assumed that attractive prices for wheat compared to corn will encourage summer wheat feeding. Also the start of an early crop year will produce new crop stocks that will be available during the old crop marketing year. The stocks to use ratio is increased from 6.3% to 6.7%. The trade was expecting ending stocks of 758 million bushels. The season average price is projected to range from $5.95 to $6.25 a bushel, narrowed 5 cents on the lower end and 15 cents on the top side. Global old crop corn stocks increased 69 million bushels from last month to 4.9 billion bushels. New crop ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year are projected at 1.881 billion bushels, 97 million bushels higher than the average trade guess. The new crop numbers really were about expected if the adjustment for old crop stocks is taken out. Planted acreage at 95.9 million acres is based on the March 30 USDA Prospective Plantings report and the record estimated yield of 166 bushels per acre is based on planting progress and the outlook for good growing conditions. The supply with record production is projected 2.150 billion bushels higher than last year while demand is projected at 1.120 billion bushels higher. The new crop season average price is projected to range from $4.20 to $5.00 a bushel. Global stocks are projected at 5.997 billion bushels, 976 million bushels higher than the old crop year.  September corn closed down 13 ½ cents at $5.13 ½ a bushel. Technical analysis has a strong sell bias with support at $5.02 and resistance at $5.35. In weekly comments, I added 10% priced during the week to 50% over all. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 55 million bushels with 14 years below the final estimate and 17 years above.  The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

May 10, 2012

USDA’s projections for old and new crop would have to be considered bearish as ending stocks are unchanged for old crop and project increased stocks for both the U.S. and the world in new crop. Old crop production was increased slightly but still resulted in unchanged ending stocks of 3.4 million bales. The projected price range for 2011/12 was also unchanged at 91 cents per pound. The stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 23%. World projections for old crop ending stocks were projected 810,000 bales higher at 66.88 million bales. Projections for new crop cotton start with the March 30 USDA planting intentions acreage of 13.16 million acres, an abandonment of 20%, and a yield of 777 pounds per acre. These numbers reflect the influence of the continued drought in the Texas High Plains area. Production is projected to increase 1.43 million bales from the previous year with total supply 2.22 million bales higher at 20.41 million bales. Domestic use is increased 100,000 bales and exports increased 600,000 bales from the previous year. Ending stocks increase 1.5 million bales to 4.90 million bales. The season average price for new crop is projected to range from 65 to 85 cents per pound. The acreage estimates will most likely be the highest estimate for the year as many analysts are looking for actual acreage to come in at 12.7 -12.8 million acres as soybean prices have risen while cotton prices have declined. Demand and increased prices for the new crop year will be dependent on whether a sluggish economy in the U.S. and abroad can finally break loose from current levels. Global stocks are also slated to increase 6.87 million bales to 73.75 million bales, which would be another record stock. World production is expected to decrease 6.35 million bales but still is estimated to be 6.7 million bales above consumption. China is expected to hold 38% of the world’s stock and their policies on cotton will most likely sway the market. July futures closed limit down 4 cents at 81.82 cents per pound.  Keep in contact with your cotton buyer on current quotes. At this time, I am currently at 80% priced for 2011 production and will look to finish sales this month.  December cotton closed at 79.37 cents/pound, down the 4 cent limit. Technical analysis has a strong sell with support at 76.45 and resistance at 85.21. Today’s selloff appears overdone and may be due to some funds forced liquidation. Actual planted cotton acreage will most likely be lower than the current projection. Stronger demand will be needed to pull prices up. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 1.7 million bales with 15 years below the final estimate and 16 years above. These numbers can and will change, but do reflect the best information and estimates at the time of the report. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

May 10, 2012

In a bullish USDA report, ending stocks for 2011/12 were lowered 40 million bushels to 210 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 221 million bushels. Crush was increased 15 million bushels while exports were raised 25 million bushels. The season average price for 2011/12 was bumped up 10 cents to $12.35 a bushel. Stocks to use ratio was projected at 6.8%, down from 8.2% last month.  World ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected to again decrease to 1.956 billion bushels, 84 million bushels less than the April estimate.  In the new crop year, increased demand more than offsets increased production as ending stocks are projected at 145 million bushels, a historically low stocks-to-use ratio of 4.4%. Based on the March 30 USDA planting intentions report, soybean planted acreage is projected at 73.9 million acres. Acreage will most likely be increased at some point in the growing season as it is believed that higher soybean prices have encouraged either additional double crop acres or a switch from other crops. Currently, supplies are projected at 3.430 billion bushels with usage at 3.285 billion bushels. The season average price is estimated to range from $12.00 to $14.00 a bushel. Global new crop stocks are projected to increase 177 million bushels to 2.134 billion bushels as South American production is expected to rebound from their drought reduced production of 2011/12 and offset increased consumption. November soybeans closed at $13.59, up 25 ½ cents per bushel. Technical analysis has a buy bias with support at $13.16 and resistance at $13.89 a bushel. I am currently priced at 50% for the 2012 crop.  From a price risk management standpoint, a $13.60 Put would cost 80 cents and set a $12.80 futures floor. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 110 million bushels with 9 years below the final estimate and 22 years above. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

May 10, 2012

USDA offered a friendly to neutral wheat supply and demand report today as ending stocks for both old and new crop wheat are slightly lower than the average trade guess. Projections for 2011/12 marketing year which ends on May 31 for wheat are for ending stocks of 768 million bushels, 25 million bushels lower than last month and 13 million bushels lower than the average trade guess. Exports accounted for the change as they were raised 25 million bushels. The stocks to use ratio is estimated at 34.7%. The estimated season average price was narrowed 5 cents to $7.25 a bushel. World ending stocks are projected at 7.239 billion bushels, down 34 million bushels from April. USDA new crop projections estimate ending stocks at 735 million bushels compared to the average pre-report guess of 805 million bushels. Production and total supplies are both projected higher than the previous year with demand forecast to increase 8.3% from the 2011/12 marketing year. Stocks to use are expected to drop to 30.7% with a season average price of $5.50 to $6.70 a bushel. Global stocks are expected to decrease 327 million bushels to 6.912 billion bushels. July wheat closed at $6.01 ¼ up 1 ¼ cents. Technical analysis shows a strong sell bias with support at $5.88 with resistance at $6.13 a bushel. In my weekly comments, I am currently priced 20% on the current crop and would target any rallies to the $6.50 range as a point to price more. With harvest right around the corner and wheat looking like it has reached a bottom, if price targets aren’t met I would consider selling the remainder at harvest or possibly storing some depending on the deferred contracts basis and cash flow needs. Over the past 31 years the average difference between the May projection for U.S. ending stocks and the final estimate has been 3.7 million bushels with 17 years below the final estimate and 14 years above. These numbers can and will change, but do reflect the best information and estimates at the time of the report. The next USDA Supply & Demand report will be released June 12, 2012.

May 10, 2012

This table should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. This table looks at crop prices as of May 10, 2012 for 2012 and can give a glimpse of what crop profitability is in Tennessee as of this date. One of the expense items that have to be watched is fertilizer. Fertilizer cost, particularly nitrogen prices have gone up recently for producers who did not have it already priced. I have updated the table below to reflect this higher cost.   For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: cotton - $ 155, Soybeans - $53, Corn - $186 (includes 150 units of N), Milo - $145, and wheat/soybeans - $138. Production costs will be updated as we go through the year. Due to the warm spring, additional burndowns are needed in cotton (+$39 chemical) and soybeans (+$11 chemical) and the increased chemical and sprayer cost have been updated. Please visit with your farm supplier on estimated cost in your area. Producers with owned land and or cash rent can use Returns Over Variable as a guide in decision making. Producers with share rent ground should use Returns Over Variable and Land Costs as a guide with their appropriate share rent calculated. A land cost of 25% of revenue is used in the table as a guide or method of comparison and should not be construed as the appropriate rent for a particular area. Producers who are not making major equipment changes can use UT budgets and this table as a guide in developing their own cropping decision budgets. If equipment changes are being made, then a whole farm financial plan would be better suited as a decision aid. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist – Farm Management for assistance in developing your own budget or farm financial plan.

Some differences have occured due to rounding.