Cotton - Supply, Demand, and Price
Estimates - May 9, 2008
For more information contact
Delton C. Gerloff, dcgerloff@utk.edu,
Agricultural Economics,
University of Tennessee Extension Service
Old crop stocks keep growing as demand slows. Planted acreage will drop again this year, but stocks should remain adequate. I think prices will eventually rise as stocks drop, but it could be later this year or early next year before it happens. Greater use, both domestically and foreign, could also help to rally prices later this year. If USDA is correct in this month’s report, the market will have to buy in acres next year to meet demand. At the time that scenario becomes evident, prices should move higher.
| |
2003/
2004 |
2004/
2005 |
2005/
2006 |
2006/
2007 |
2007/
2008 |
Low Carryover Scenario
2008/09 |
Expected Carryover
Scenario 2008/09 |
High Carryover Scenario
2008/09 |
| Supply |
- - Projected
for 2008/2009 - - |
Acres Planted
(million acres) |
13.5 |
13.7 |
14.2 |
15.3 |
10.83 |
8.89 |
9.39 |
9.89 |
Acres Harvested |
12.0 |
13.1 |
13.8 |
12.7 |
10.49 |
7.94 |
8.39 |
8.84 |
U.S. Average Yield (lbs/acre) |
730 |
855 |
831 |
814 |
879 |
790 |
830 |
865 |
|
Beg. Stocks
(million bales) |
5.38 |
3.45 |
5.50 |
6.05 |
9.48 |
9.90 |
9.90 |
9.90 |
Production |
18.25 |
23.25 |
23.89 |
21.59 |
19.21 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
15.9 |
Imports |
0.05 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
Total Supply |
23.68 |
26.73 |
29.41 |
27.66 |
28.7 |
23.0 |
24.4 |
25.8 |
|
Use |
Domestic |
6.49 |
6.69 |
5.89 |
4.95 |
4.6 |
. |
4.3 |
. |
Exports |
13.76 |
14.41 |
18.04 |
13.01 |
14.2 |
|
14.5 |
. |
Total Use |
20.25 |
21.10 |
23.92 |
17.96 |
18.8 |
19.3 |
18.8 |
18.3 |
U.S. Ending Stocks |
3.51 |
5.50 |
6.05 |
9.48 |
9.9 |
3.7 |
5.6 |
7.5 |
Foreign Stocks |
39.5 |
51.8 |
56.3 |
53.5 |
51.6 |
|
50.0 |
|
U.S. Average Season Price |
$61.80 |
$41.60 |
$47.70 |
$46.50 |
$56.40 |
|
|
|
Supply and Demand Projections
and Historical Data Source: USDA |
For
more information contact Delton
C. Gerloff
|